James R. Thompson



Thompson, James R. (2003), Models for Homeland Security With Borrowings from SPC and Game Theory, Computing Science and Statistics, 35, I2003Proceedings/ThompsonJames/ThompsonJames.paper.pdf

Thompson, James R. (2003), Model Building for Enhancing Homeland Security, Computing Science and Statistics, 35, I2003Proceedings/ThompsonJames/ThompsonJames.presentation.pdf ,
I2003Proceedings/ThompsonJames/ThompsonJames.presentation.ppt ,
I2003Proceedings/ThompsonJames/interfaceb.ppt



Models for Homeland Security With Borrowings from SPC and Game Theory
James R. Thompson (Dept. of Statistics, Rice University)

Abstract

The events of September 11, 2001, have changed dramatically the perceived and actual security of the United States of America. We have become the target of attack not by a nation state, but rather by a supranational organization of religious fanatics bent on the destruction of our country. Although they acted well outside the boundaries of acceptable Muslim behavior, the fact remains that all the 9-11 terrorists were Muslims. If America is to survive this challenge, then we need to adjust our notions of defense to deal with a threat which is quite different from those successfully dealt with during the Cold War. Just as the threat of nuclear war changed the way we handled conflicts following 1945, we need to come up with a paradigm and a set of tools to solve the new diffuse threats of al-Quaida. In this search for a new paradigm for homeland defense, we ought to learn from the lessons of the past. These include an examination of previous crises produced by Islamist threats and the ways with which they were dealt. Also, we need to profit from the example given us by Herman Kahn early in the nuclear age as to how we can develop new paradigms for dealing with the current threat. Model based simulation, which was the toolbox used by Kahn, can give us a rapid start in dealing with the new crisis.


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