Rust, Bert W. (2003), Separating Signal from Noise in Global Warming, Computing Science and Statistics, 35, I2003Proceedings/RustBert/RustBert.paper.pdf ,
Many people still refuse to acknowledge the reality of global warming. One argument often used against it is that the global temperature record is too noisy to allow a clear determination of the signal. This paper presents two models for the signal which demonstrate that: (1) the warming in the last 146 years has been more than 8.5 times greater than the noise level, (2) the warming is accelerating, and (3) the warming is related to the growth in fossil fuel emissions. One model uses a constant rate for the acceleration and the other an exponential whose rate constant is exactly one half that of the growth in fossil fuel production. The two models can be viewed as best case and worst case scenarios for extrapolations into the future, but the data measured so far cannot reliably distinguish between them.