Table of Contents



Keynote Address

Combining Observations with Models: Penalized Likelihood and Related Methods in Numerical Weather Prediction
Grace Wahba


Short Courses

Building and Fitting Random Effects Models
William Cleveland, Lorraine Denby, Chuanhai Liu

Random Location and Scale Effects: Model Building Methods for a General Class of Models
William Cleveland, Lorraine Denby, Chuanhai Liu

An Introduction to Model Building with Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces with Applications to Biostatistics and Atmospheric Sciences
Grace Wahba


Models for the Earth's Atmosphere and Oceans

Air-Sea Interaction inl the Labrador Sea: Deep Water Formation and Climate
Ralph Milliff

Hierarchical, Space-Time Models: Physically Based Models for Combining Geophysical Data
L. Mark Berliner

Computational Advances in Gibbs Sampling of Massive Spatio-Temporal Models
Timothy Hoar, Christopher K. Wikle

Stochastic Parameterizations in General Circulation Models of the Atmosphere: Cloud Motions
Rachel Buchberger


Critical Infrastructure Modeling

Simulation-based Analysis of the Nation's Critical Infrastructure
J. Darrell Morgeson

Generation and Measurement of Large Dynamical Systems
Chris Barrett

Statistics for Complex Computer Models: Beyond Input-Output Analysis
Katherine Campbell and Richard Beckman

Cyber Crimes and Counter Measures
Matthias Schonlau

Statistical Visualization Methods for Intrusion Detection
Jeffrey L. Solka, David J. Marchette, Bradley Wallet

Hidden Markov Modeling of Freeway Traffic Status
Jaimyoung Kwon, Peter Bickel, John Rice


Information Technology and Federal Statistics

Wrapping and Mediating Survey Data
Amamath Gupta, Chairanya Baru, Richard Marciano, Ilya Zaslavsky

Statistical Information Seeking and System Design
Carol Hert

Energy Data Collection
Ed Hovy, Judith Klavans

The Data Documentation Initiative: Current Status of an Attempt to Specify an XML DTD for Empirical Social Science Documentation
Peter Joftis


Strategies for Investigating Geophysical and Other Complex Data

Compressing Massive Geophysical Data Using Quantization
Amy Braverman

Finding Bent-Double Radio Galaxies: A Case Study in Data Mining
I. K. Fodor, C. Baldwin, E. Cantú-Paz, C. Kamath, N. Tang

Characterizing the Complexity of a High-Dimensional Classification Problem
Carey E. Priebe, David J. Marchette

Multiresolution Stochastic Models for Object Recognition in Self-Similar Texture Images
Richard J. Barton, Jennifer Davidson, Lili Chen, Fei Wan

Predicting the Phase Transition in 3-Colorable Graphs
Hao Zhang

On the Decomposition of Spatial Processes in MATLAB
Reinhard Furrer


Computation and Estimation Issues in Modeling

Bayesian Computations in Random Environment Models
Dhaifalla K. Al-Mutairi

Borrowing Strength without Explicit Data Pooling: Estimating External Constraints
Jerome Reiter

Do Blocks Make a Neighborhood? Approaches to Estimating Neighborhood Parameters Based on Localized Observations
Carolyn A. Carroll

Semi-Parametric Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models
Yuedong Wang, Chunlei Ke

Smoothing Spline Analysis of Variance for Correlated Non-Gaussian Data
Peter Karcher, Yuedong Wang

Score Tests for Poisson Variation Against General Alternatives
Gordon K. Smyth, Heather Podlich


Wavelets, Splines, State-Space and Adaptive Models

NORM Thresholding Method in Wavelet Regression
Dongfeng Wu

The Application of Multiwavelets to Recovery of Signals
Nathaniel Tymes, Maria Cristina Peyerya, Sam Efromovich

Adaptive Splines and Genetic Algorithms for Optimal Low-Dimensional Statistical Modeling
Jennifer I. Pittman

Partially Adaptive Bandwidth Used in Prediction and Local Regression
Janis Grabis

Self-Modeling Regression with Random Effects Using Penalized Regression Splines
Naomi S. Altman, Julio C. Villarreal

Estimation of Nonlinear State-Space Models in the Presence of Censored Observations
Craig Johns, Robert H. Shumway


Applications of Exploring, Modeling and Presenting Large Datasets

Predictive Statistical Models for Detecting Anomalies and Congestion in IP Based Networks
Elisa M. Santos

Mixture Models for WWW Usage: Traffic Modeling for CATV Networks
Dee Denteneer, Verus Pronk

Updating Timing Profiles for Millions of Customers in Real-Time
Diane Lambert, Jose C. Pinheiro, Don X. Sun

Data Mining on Time Series: An Illustration Using Fast Food Restaurant Franchise Data
Lon-Mu Liu, S. Bhattacharyya, S. L. Sclove, R. Chen, W. J. Lattyak

Redesigning Tables and Graphics for Federal Statistical Agencies
Daniel B. Carr

Remote Medical Evaluation and Diagnostics: A Testbed for Hypertensive Patient Monitoring
John Dumer, Timothy Hanratty, Barry Bodt, Mitchell Perry, Sharon Carmody


CSNA Sponsored Session: Applications of Clustering and Classification to Large Datasets

Inner-Loop Statistics in Automated Scientific Discovery from Massive Datasets
Andrew Moore

Current Approaches to Gene Chip Data Analysis
Daniel Weaver

Preliminary Studies on Combining Wavelet and Cluster Analysis for Gene Chip Data
William Shannon

The UC Irvine Knowledge Discovery in Databases Archive
Stephen D. Bay, Dennis Kibler, Michael J, Pazzani, Padhraic Smyth


Best of the Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics: New Developments in EM

An Interval Analysis Approach to the EM Algorithm
Kevin Wright, William J. Kennedy

Fitting Mixed-Effects Models Using Efficient EM-Type Algorithms
David van Dyk


Characterizing Large Complex Natural Systems and Beyond

Statistics and Models for Complex Systems in Engineering and Biology
John Doyle


Banquet Speech

Measuring the Earth
David J. Hand


A Tutorial on Inverse Theory

A Tutorial on Statistical Regularization of Inverse Problems
Luis Tenorio

Velocity Estimation in Exploration Geophysics: A Bootstrap Approach
Alberto Villarreal

Generalizing Wiener-Levinson Deconvolution
Luis Tenorio, Alberto Villarreal

Estimating the Influence of Random Noise on Measured Travel Times
Albena Mateeva


Defining, Measuring, and Analyzing the Quality of Care: Statistical and Computational Challenges

The HIV Performance Measurement Perspective from NYC, Framing the Clinical Context
Bruce Agins

Measuring and Improving Quality in Managed Care: Some Statistical and Computing Issues
Randall K. Spoeri

Building Aggregate Health Care Quality Scales
John Adams

Simulation in Models of Health Care Quality
Karl Heiner, David Laws, David Walshaw

Casemix Adjustment of the National CAHPS Benchmarking Data 1.0
Marc N. Elliott, Richard Swartz, John Adams, Ron D. Hays

Imputing Treatment Differences in Meta-Analyses with Missing Data
I. Elaine Allen, Ingram Olkin


The Use of Modeling and Statistics in Defense Analysis

Using Advanced Modeling and Simulation Technologies and Techniques in the Analysis of Defense
Colonel William Crain

The Joint Warfare System (JWARS): A Tool to Improve Combat Simulation for Information Age Military
Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Maxwell

Improving Inventory Performance by "Rightsizing" Inventory Reorder Points
Ron Fricker

Simulation Support and Army Resource Decisions
Craig E. College

Modeling Support Infrastructure for the Expeditionary Aerospace Force
Lionel Galway

Information and Knowledge Organization to Support Modeling and Statistics in Defense
Yvonne Martinez


Enterprise Modeling: Supply Chain Design to Statistical Performance Analysis

Systems Thinking in Supply Chain Management
Charu Chandra

Planning Experiments with Computer Models of Complex Phenomena
Leslie M. Moore, Bonnie Ray, Dennis R. Powell

Forecasting Methods for Supply Chain Management
Bonnie Ray


Using Statistical Modeling to Identify Perturbations in Earth System Processes: Examples from Landscape Evolution and Tectonics

River Network Scaling Laws: Deviations and Fluctuations
Peter Dodds, Daniel Rothman

Quantitative Testing of Landform Evolution Models
Garry Willgoose, Greg Hancock

Tectonic Deformation Estimation Using Stream Gradients: Nonparametric Function Estimation from Difference Data Using Splines and Conjugate Gradients,
Tim C. Hesterberg, Derek Stanford, Dorothy Merritts

Conjugate Gradient Methods for Large-Scale Sparse Regression with Applications to Seismic Deformation Estimation
Derek Stanford


Statistics in Precision Agriculture

Hypothesis Tests in the Presence of Spatial Correlation
Robert G. Downer

Statistical Issues in the Analysis of Remotely Sensed Data as Pertains to Precision Agriculture
Patrick D. Gerard, David Evans, Michael Cox

Use of Spatial Statistics to Design Sampling Plans for Monitoring Rust in Coffee Trees
Raúl E. Macchiavelli, Rocío del P. Rodriguez

Effect of Number of Seed Bulked when Using the Multiple-Seed Procedure for Self-Pollinated Crops
James Beaver, Raúl E. Macchiavelli

Geostatistical Analysis of Spatial Nutrient Data in A precision Agriculture Experiment
Bradley Tiffee and Robert G. Downer


Exploration and Visualization in High Dimensions

Exploration and Estimation of North American Climatological Data
James A. Shine, Paul F. Krause

Visualizing Abandoned Hazardous Waste Sites in the United States
Carolyn K. Offutt

High-Dimensional Visualization Using Continuous Conditioning
William C. Wojciechowski, David W. Scott

Graphical Techniques for the Exploration of Functional Data
E. Neely Atkinson

Authenticating Vulnerability Measurements
Edward J. Wegman

2D Classification Trees
Hyunjoong Kim, Wei-Yin Loh


Multivariate Modeling: Issues and Applications

Statistical Analysis of Rhizosphere Microbial Communities
Jayson D. Wilbur, Cindy H. Nakatsu, Sylvie M. Brouder, R. W. Doerge

A Study of Faculty Equity Salary Using Derived Data
Trong Wu

Use of Latent Variable Models in Air Quality Monitoring
William F. Christensen, Stephan R. Sain

CCA: Canonical Correlation or Correspondence Analysis? Which is Better for Analysis and Interpretation of Multivariate Data?
A. Dale Magoun, Linda Peyman

Penalized Score Equations and Penalized GEE
Wenjiang J. Fu

Assessing Deformation in Glaciers
S. Huzurbazar

Demand Variation along the Supply Chain
Nick T. Thomopoulos, Wayne E. Bancroft, Nick Z. Malham


Innovations in Model Diagnostics and Fitting Algorithms

Multiple Outlier Detection
David W. Scott

Parameter Selection for Constrained Solutions to Ill-Posed Problems
Bert Rust

Optimal Algorithms for Unimodal Regression
Quentin Stout

Is Cross Validation the Best Approach for Principal Component and Ridge Regression?
Roy E. Welsch

Case Studies of Normal Diagnostics in Regression Using Recovered Errors
Donald R. Jensen, Donald E. Ramirez

Tree-Based Models for Fitting Stratified Linear Regression Models
William Shannon, Maciej Faifer, Cezary Janikow


Time Series and Proportional Hazards

Inference about the Change-Points in a Sequence of Random Vectors
A. K. Gupta, J. Chen

Detecting Change in Variance of Unequally Spaced Time Series
Tze-San Lee, N. Hou

Dynamic Modeling of Spectral Density Power Rhythms in All-Night Electroencephalograph (EEG)
Matthew R. Marler, J. Christian Gillin, Arlene Schlosser, Hanspeter Landolt

Importance Bootstrap Resampling for Proportional Hazards Regression
Kim-Ahn Do, Bradley M. Broom, Xuemei Wang

The Introduction of Local Spread as a Measure of Non-Stationarity
Robert A. Hedges, Bruce W. Suter

Multivariate Time Series Analysis in Principal Component Space
Joseph N. Ladalla

Sequential testing of Cox Proportional Hazards Models
Victor D. Zurkowski


The Utility of Bayesian Analysis for Environmental Problems

Scenario and Parametric Uncertainty in GESAMAC: A Methodological Study in Nuclear Waste Disposal Risk
David Draper

A Probability Network for Water Quality Modeling and Decision Support
Kenneth H. Reckhow, Mark E. Borsuk

Bayesian Assessment of Uncertainty and Variability in Deterministic Environmental Exposure Models
Samantha Bates, Adrian Raftery

Environmental Modeling and Bayesian Analysis for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Radioactive Contamination
Tom Stockton and Paul Black


IASC Sponsored Session: Application to Earth Systems

Using Smoothing to Reconstruct the Holocene Temperature in Lapland
Lasse Holmström, Panu Erästö, Petri Koistinen, Jan Weckström, Atte Korhola

A Computational Geometry Approach to Peeling and Outlier Detection
Giancarlo Ragozini

Applications of Deepest Regression
Mia Hubert, Stefan Van Aelst, Peter J. Rousseeuw


Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Models

Quantifying the Effects of Noise in Biogeochemical Models
Barbara Bailey, Scott Doney

The Selection of the Optimal Structure of the Earth's Model for Forecasting the Main Physical Parameters
Alexander Dmitrievich Gorobets

Cost-Effective Uncertainty Analysis
Daniela Stoevska-Kojouharov

Statistical Quantification of Prediction Error Associated with Computational Predictions
Robert G. Easterling, Marcey Abate

The Role of Statistical Methods in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Projects
Christiane Jablonowski

Confidence Bands in Nonparametric Regression
David J. Cummins, Doug Nychka


Statistical Tests, Estimation and Stability

Adjusting the Asymmetric Two Sample t-Test
Sandy D. Balkin, Colin Mallows

The Wilson-Hilferty Transform is Locally Saddlepoint
George R. Terrell

On Numerical Stability of MGF and CF
Junhyo Kim

A Test for Symmetry about a Known Median Based on a Runs Test
Alex Leonardo Rojas Peña, Jimmy A. Corzo Salamanca

Mining Evolutionary Data for Multidimensional Scaling of Gene Measurements
Rida Moustafa, Edward J. Wegman

Efficient Nonparametric Estimation of a Distribution Function
Reza Modarres

Large Sample One-Sample and Two-Sample Tests for Average Incidence Rates
John J. Hsieh


Statistics and Information Technology

How Should We Publish Data Analyses in the Web Age?
Todd L. Graves

Geographic Aggregation Procedures for data Disclosure Limitation
Ashish Sanil

Detecting Defection: Mining Massive Data to Model ISP Customer Churn
Nandini Raghavan


Statistical and Computational Methods for Survival and Reliability Data

A Case Study in Competing Risk Reliability Analysis Using JMP Software
Bradley Jones

Reliability Data Analysis Using S-Plus
William Q. Meeker

Random Effects Survival Models for Familial Data
Terry M. Therneau


Author Index